HO Ching: The Truth about Singapore’s Property Market Cooling Measures: No Need to Panic

ABSD curbs on property purchases?

Relax, lah!

Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty or ABSD increases has been described by some media folks as “shocking”!

Others are surprised that buyers are snapping up 75% of units at a recent condo launch, post the ABSD increase announcement.

Wow! What nail biting news!

But hit the pause button, and we find it is not so surprising after all.

First of all, what is clear is that Singaporeans still enjoy zero ABSD for their 1st property (ie the single property that they wish to buy if they do not own any other properties). PRs would pay 5%, no change from before.

The ABSD cooling measure increases target 2nd, 3rd and higher number of residential properties, as well as foreign buyers. Taken together, these constitute some 10% of residential property transactions.

Ah so! 90% of home buyer are buying their one property, mostly for owner occupation. The rare exceptions are when they are posted overseas for instance for jobs etc.

So, the new ABSD increases don’t affect the 99% of home buyers at all.

But, but, but, …, what if we want to upgrade? downgrade? move nearer our parents or children? move nearer school for kids? move nearer our work place? follow our church or temple move? move closer to parks, seaside, MRT station, hawker centre, etc?

Yah, there is also straight forward 2nd point about the ABSD system as a cooling measure.

We can get an ABSD refund if we sell our 1st residential property within 6 months of buying the 2nd property.

After all, the ABSD is meant as a property cooling measure, not intended to prevent home mobility.

So we have 6 months to sell our 1st property, to claim back our ABSD.

What else if we are looking at a 2nd residential property?

Apparently, we don’t need to pay ABSD upfront if we are buying an Executive Condo or EC. We still have 6 months to sell our 1st property to avoid paying the ABSD for the new purchase.

And husband and wife can separately or jointly own 2 properties, on the basis that this is equivalent to one residential property each.

And of course, ABSD only applies to residential properties. There is no ABSD for commercial properties etc.

Plus, there are now over 30+ S-REITs for interested investors to get exposure to various kinds of properties for investment, without having to go buy single chunky assets, which could be hard to dispose when we need to cash.

The S-REITs in this environment yield anywhere from 4% for more conservatively managed portfolios, to over 10% for the higher risk portfolios.

The S-REITs don’t require huge amounts of money to start. And we can buy an ETF on S-REITs too to diversify single S-REIT manager risks.

S-REITs were first conceived and developed as a way for ordinary mom and pop retail and small investors to have digestible access to a chunky asset class of properties. It is a way for folks to invest in a well regulated, relatively stable and easily understood asset in bite sizes of 1000 units.

At the same time, foreign buyers can also have access to a more liquid asset underpinned by an easily understood and well diversified asset like property. In this way, they don’t need to park their emergency savings into a single property, and find it difficult to sell and monetise that one chunky asset precisely during emergencies when markets may dry up.

What else?

Yah, what if we are planning to move but worry about not finding a buyer within the 6 months window?

Not usual, but we can consider doing a sale and leaseback say for 2-3 years, so we have up to 2-3 years of lease post sale to remain in our 1st home, while we hunt for our next dream home.

As Lucy Tan suggested in her comments, perhaps govt could consider extending the sale of 1st property to 9 months instead of 6?

But 6 months may not be too bad, if there is serious effort to sell?

Sometimes, delays in selling may be driven by higher than market expectations? ]

As for paying the ABSD for 2nd, 3rd or more homes, whether for ourselves, our children, etc, think of it this way.

Those who can afford to buy more than one property, would be buying for investment, or as a gift for their children or as a home for their parents.

The ABSD they pay can be considered a donation to government to support various social programmes or public good services including education and defence.

We can kind of think of the ABSD as another layer of wealth tax.

Given that there are many other ways to invest, or create a nest egg for their children or grandchildren, including S-REITs, folks who want to buy additional properties for investment or as future gifts to their children or grandchildren should consider their ABSD as a sharing of their own good fortune, as a payback of their good fortune, as donations for the public good.

And as for foreign buyers, chances of foreigners from far away wanting to buy a home in Sg is small.

But as Asia prospers, and about half of the world population is within 7 hours flight from Sg, we are just too small a place for a massive wave of non Singaporeans or PRs wanting to park their money in a relatively non-productive asset like a residential home.

Overseas folks are most welcome to invest in other productive segments of the economy, with residential properties largely meant to be homes for people to stay as owner occupiers.

Hence, foreign buyers are subject to a hefty ABSD of 60%, doubling the earlier rate of 30%.

This hefty jump must mean that MAS must already be seeing increasing flows into the residential property market post pandemic, and hence, the quick preemptive cooling measure, esp in the light of various macro global trends.

So foreigners still interested in property assets can invest in S-REITs or S-REIT ETFs as an alternative to crowding into the residential home market in tiny Sg

So relax folks, there is really no need to hyperventilate about the latest ABSD increases.

Have a good weekend, and a Happy May Day tomorrow.

New Cooling Measures: Rental Prices Likely to Increase, Mass Market Condo Demand Remains Stable

SINGAPORE — With the recent cooling measures doubling the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) for foreigners and increasing it for Singaporeans and permanent residents, property analysts predict a likely jump in rental prices.

Various factors contribute to this expectation, including foreigners choosing to rent instead of buying a home, and flat owners renting before upgrading to a private property to avoid paying the duty.

Close to midnight on Wednesday (April 26), the Government announced its highest ABSD rate increase since it was first introduced in 2011. Foreigners who buy any residential property here will have to pay 60 per cent of the property’s purchase price, up from 30 per cent. Singaporeans buying their second residential property pay 20 per cent, up from 17 per cent. The changes took effect on Thursday.

In a joint statement, the Ministry of National Development, Ministry of Finance, and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) highlighted growing demand for property among investors locally and internationally, stating that the cooling measures aim to “promote a sustainable property market.”

Property analysts expect housing rental charges to spike. However, some believe the increase might be muted, in line with MAS’ forecast of the rental market released on Wednesday in its macroeconomic review. MAS mentioned in its bi-annual report that growth in rental prices would dampen in the second half of the year due to an influx of new residential units potentially slowing rental demand.

As for potential private property buyers, analysts said that the latest cooling measures would not affect the sale of mass market condominiums. Most housing hunters would be first-property buyers not affected by the higher ABSD. One analyst from real estate agency PropNex Realty mentioned that its internal data suggests that only 1.5 per cent of transactions involved foreigners.

Ms Christine Sun, OrangeTee and Tie’s senior vice-president of research and analytics, said: “(Private property) sales volume will usually drop for about three to six months (after a cooling measure), but it will rebound after that.” These market shifts will “take effect immediately” after the ABSD increase, alongside a slowing growth in property prices, she added.

Historically, prices have never fallen after an increase — only when the Total Debt Servicing Ratio was adjusted, she observed. Last revised in September 2022, the Total Debt Servicing Ratio stipulates that all debt obligations, including housing loans, cannot exceed 55 per cent of a person’s income.

The higher ABSD is expected to push up rental prices for various reasons. For instance, 60 per cent is likely too high for some foreigners who may choose to rent while waiting to obtain citizenship or permanent residency — allowing them to avoid the ABSD or pay a smaller amount. This increased demand for rental housing will then drive up prices.

Mr Lee Sze Teck, senior director of research at real estate firm Huttons Asia, said: “Anecdotally, there are foreigners who rent, with an option to purchase the home once they become a permanent resident or citizen.” He estimates that rental charges will grow around 10 per cent this year.

Ms Sun also mentioned that owners of Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats may rent short-term while waiting in the period between selling their flat and buying a private property, to avoid paying the ABSD. “Some may find the upfront ABSD payment to be too high. Therefore, those who wish to upgrade may need to sell their flat then rent somewhere first, resulting in higher costs incurred.”

Ms Tricia Song, head of research for Southeast Asia at real estate firm CBRE, said that the overall rental market may be further affected in the long run. “As investment demand is likely to be altered by (the cooling measures), there could be fewer private homes for rent in the longer term. Demand could then spill over to commercial operators such as co-living or serviced apartments,” she added.

Analysts who spoke to TODAY are not expecting the latest changes to significantly impact the demand or prices of mass market condominiums. Mr Ismail Gafoor, chief executive officer of PropNex Realty, said: “The impact of the latest measures will not be evenly felt, with foreign buyers in particular taking a bigger hit. We think the impact of the ABSD rate hike on the mass market will not be significant as foreigners accounted for only 1.5 per cent of the private home purchases in the mass market in the whole of 2022.”

Another analyst agreed, saying that unlike investors who may adopt a wait-and-see approach, buyers who are primarily getting a property for their own occupation may still be active in the mass market, especially first-time buyers.

Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, senior analyst for research and content creation at One Global Property Services, said: “Overall, affordable private properties, such as condominium units that are priced within their budget and offer desirable amenities in accessible locations, may still be in demand, albeit at a slower pace.”

However, experts had mixed views on the impact on the HDB resale market, with some predicting that there may be no significant shifts. Mr Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at property technology company Mogul.sg, said that there may be higher demand for bigger or better-located HDB flats once people ditch their plans to own and live in private housing as a result of the new changes.

Alternatively, some of these “upgraders” may delay plans, which may lead to a lower resale volume of HDB flats “for a few months,” he added.