HO Ching: The Truth about Singapore’s Property Market Cooling Measures: No Need to Panic

ABSD curbs on property purchases?

Relax, lah!

Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty or ABSD increases has been described by some media folks as “shocking”!

Others are surprised that buyers are snapping up 75% of units at a recent condo launch, post the ABSD increase announcement.

Wow! What nail biting news!

But hit the pause button, and we find it is not so surprising after all.

First of all, what is clear is that Singaporeans still enjoy zero ABSD for their 1st property (ie the single property that they wish to buy if they do not own any other properties). PRs would pay 5%, no change from before.

The ABSD cooling measure increases target 2nd, 3rd and higher number of residential properties, as well as foreign buyers. Taken together, these constitute some 10% of residential property transactions.

Ah so! 90% of home buyer are buying their one property, mostly for owner occupation. The rare exceptions are when they are posted overseas for instance for jobs etc.

So, the new ABSD increases don’t affect the 99% of home buyers at all.

But, but, but, …, what if we want to upgrade? downgrade? move nearer our parents or children? move nearer school for kids? move nearer our work place? follow our church or temple move? move closer to parks, seaside, MRT station, hawker centre, etc?

Yah, there is also straight forward 2nd point about the ABSD system as a cooling measure.

We can get an ABSD refund if we sell our 1st residential property within 6 months of buying the 2nd property.

After all, the ABSD is meant as a property cooling measure, not intended to prevent home mobility.

So we have 6 months to sell our 1st property, to claim back our ABSD.

What else if we are looking at a 2nd residential property?

Apparently, we don’t need to pay ABSD upfront if we are buying an Executive Condo or EC. We still have 6 months to sell our 1st property to avoid paying the ABSD for the new purchase.

And husband and wife can separately or jointly own 2 properties, on the basis that this is equivalent to one residential property each.

And of course, ABSD only applies to residential properties. There is no ABSD for commercial properties etc.

Plus, there are now over 30+ S-REITs for interested investors to get exposure to various kinds of properties for investment, without having to go buy single chunky assets, which could be hard to dispose when we need to cash.

The S-REITs in this environment yield anywhere from 4% for more conservatively managed portfolios, to over 10% for the higher risk portfolios.

The S-REITs don’t require huge amounts of money to start. And we can buy an ETF on S-REITs too to diversify single S-REIT manager risks.

S-REITs were first conceived and developed as a way for ordinary mom and pop retail and small investors to have digestible access to a chunky asset class of properties. It is a way for folks to invest in a well regulated, relatively stable and easily understood asset in bite sizes of 1000 units.

At the same time, foreign buyers can also have access to a more liquid asset underpinned by an easily understood and well diversified asset like property. In this way, they don’t need to park their emergency savings into a single property, and find it difficult to sell and monetise that one chunky asset precisely during emergencies when markets may dry up.

What else?

Yah, what if we are planning to move but worry about not finding a buyer within the 6 months window?

Not usual, but we can consider doing a sale and leaseback say for 2-3 years, so we have up to 2-3 years of lease post sale to remain in our 1st home, while we hunt for our next dream home.

As Lucy Tan suggested in her comments, perhaps govt could consider extending the sale of 1st property to 9 months instead of 6?

But 6 months may not be too bad, if there is serious effort to sell?

Sometimes, delays in selling may be driven by higher than market expectations? ]

As for paying the ABSD for 2nd, 3rd or more homes, whether for ourselves, our children, etc, think of it this way.

Those who can afford to buy more than one property, would be buying for investment, or as a gift for their children or as a home for their parents.

The ABSD they pay can be considered a donation to government to support various social programmes or public good services including education and defence.

We can kind of think of the ABSD as another layer of wealth tax.

Given that there are many other ways to invest, or create a nest egg for their children or grandchildren, including S-REITs, folks who want to buy additional properties for investment or as future gifts to their children or grandchildren should consider their ABSD as a sharing of their own good fortune, as a payback of their good fortune, as donations for the public good.

And as for foreign buyers, chances of foreigners from far away wanting to buy a home in Sg is small.

But as Asia prospers, and about half of the world population is within 7 hours flight from Sg, we are just too small a place for a massive wave of non Singaporeans or PRs wanting to park their money in a relatively non-productive asset like a residential home.

Overseas folks are most welcome to invest in other productive segments of the economy, with residential properties largely meant to be homes for people to stay as owner occupiers.

Hence, foreign buyers are subject to a hefty ABSD of 60%, doubling the earlier rate of 30%.

This hefty jump must mean that MAS must already be seeing increasing flows into the residential property market post pandemic, and hence, the quick preemptive cooling measure, esp in the light of various macro global trends.

So foreigners still interested in property assets can invest in S-REITs or S-REIT ETFs as an alternative to crowding into the residential home market in tiny Sg

So relax folks, there is really no need to hyperventilate about the latest ABSD increases.

Have a good weekend, and a Happy May Day tomorrow.

何晶女士:新加坡楼市调控政策的真相:不必恐慌

最近,新加坡政府对房地产市场实施了一系列调控措施,引发了一些舆论的关注。在这篇文章中,何晶女士撰写的博文旨在向大家传达一个信息:新加坡楼市调控政策对大多数购房者影响有限,大家无需过于担忧。

近日,关于新加坡楼市调控政策的调整,尤其是额外买方印花税(ABSD)上涨,引发了媒体的广泛关注。有人认为这是一个“震惊”的消息,还有人惊讶于购房者在调控政策出台后仍然积极购买楼盘。然而,在深入了解这一政策调整的真正含义后,我们会发现其实并没有那么令人惊讶。

首先,新加坡公民购买第一套房产时并不需要支付ABSD,而永久居民购买第一套房产的ABSD也保持在5%不变。ABSD调高的政策主要针对购买第二套、第三套或更多房产的新加坡公民、永久居民以及外国购房者。这些人群的交易数量占据了整个住宅交易市场的10%。

其次,新加坡政府也为购房者提供了ABSD退款政策。购买第二套房产的新加坡公民和永久居民,在购房后的6个月内出售第一套房产,可以申请ABSD退款。这一政策的出台是为了确保楼市冷却措施不影响居民的生活需求,例如换房、距离父母或孩子更近、临近学校、工作地点等。

此外,购买执行共管公寓(EC)时,购房者无需预先支付ABSD。同样,在购买新房产的6个月内出售第一套房产,也可避免支付ABSD。夫妻双方可以分别或共同拥有两套房产,因为这被视为每人拥有一套房产。

值得一提的是,ABSD仅适用于住宅物业,商业物业等则无需支付ABSD。有超过30个S-REITs供投资者选择,用以投资各类房产。S-REITs具有较高的流动性,收益率在4%到10%之间。投资者可以通过购买数量较少的S-REITs或者S-REIT ETFs来分散风险。

对于那些担心在6个月内无法成功出售第一套房产的购房者,可以考虑采用“回租式出售”的方式,以确保有足够的时间寻找心仪的新房。

当然,对于那些有能力购买第二套、第三套或更多房产的人来说,他们可能是出于投资目的,或者是为子女或父母准备房子。这部分人群支付的ABSD可以被视为对政府支持社会项目和公共服务的捐赠,如教育和国防。换句话说,ABSD实际上可以被看作是一种财富税的形式。

有很多其他方式来投资或为子女和孙子女储备财富,包括购买S-REITs。那些想要购买额外房产作为投资或为子女和孙子女准备的人应该将ABSD视为他们好运的回报,用于支持公共事业。

对于外国购房者而言,想要购买新加坡住宅的外国人数量本身就不多。然而,随着亚洲地区的繁荣,约半数世界人口距离新加坡仅有7小时的飞行时间,新加坡的住宅市场对于非新加坡公民和永久居民的吸引力有限。因此,政府将针对外国购房者的ABSD从30%提高到了60%。这一举措意味着新加坡政府已经注意到疫情后住宅市场的资金流动,并采取了快速的预防性冷却措施。

总之,新加坡楼市调控政策的调整并不会对大多数购房者造成很大影响,因此大家无需过于担忧。祝大家周末愉快,明天劳动节快乐!

调控政策影响:租金或上升,大众市场公寓需求稳定

随着最近楼市调控政策实施,外国人的额外购房者印花税(ABSD)翻倍,新加坡公民和永久居民的税率也有所提高。房地产分析师预测,这将导致租金价格上升。原因包括外国人可能会选择租房而非购房,以及部分组屋业主在升级至私人住宅前选择出租以避免支付额外印花税。

政府在周三(4月26日)晚间宣布了自2011年首次推出ABSD以来的最高税率调整。购买本地任何住宅的外国人需要支付房产购买价格的60%,高于之前的30%。新加坡公民购买第二套住宅时,需要支付20%的额外印花税,高于之前的17%。

有关部门表示,新加坡和国外的投资者对房地产的需求正在增长,此次楼市调控政策旨在促进房地产市场的可持续发展。分析师认为,房屋租金可能会上涨,但也有人认为租金上涨可能会在本年度下半年放缓,因为新住宅单位的大量涌入可能会减缓租房需求。

对于有意购买私人住宅的人来说,分析师表示,最新的楼市调控政策不会影响大众市场公寓的销售。这是因为大部分购房者是首次购房者,不受较高的ABSD影响。某房地产中介公司的一位分析师表示,其内部数据显示,仅有1.5%的交易涉及外国人。

分析师预测,随着ABSD提高,市场变化将立即发生,房价增长也将放缓。根据历史数据,在调整总债务偿还比例(TDSR)后,房价从未下降。TDSR规定,包括住房贷款在内的所有债务义务不能超过个人收入的55%。

ABSD上调会导致租金价格上涨的原因是,一些外国人可能会认为60%的税率过高,因此选择在获得公民或永久居民资格前先租房。这将增加租房需求,从而推高租金价格。此外,组屋业主可能会在升级至私人住宅前短期出租,以避免支付ABSD。一些打算购买一套私人住宅并出售组屋的业主可能会受到影响。虽然他们可以在出售组屋后申请退税,但仍需先支付ABSD。部分人可能觉得预付ABSD的金额过高,因此,这些想要升级的业主可能需要先出售组屋,然后租住其他地方,从而导致租金成本上升。

房地产公司CBRE东南亚研究部主管宋莉萍表示,长期来看,整体租赁市场可能会受到进一步影响。她说:“随着投资需求可能受到(调控措施)的影响,长期内供应租赁私人住宅的数量可能会减少。需求可能会转向商业运营商,如共同生活空间或服务式公寓。”

为何公寓售价不会发生大变化

分析师认为,最新政策不太可能对大众市场公寓的需求或价格产生显著影响。一位房地产公司高管表示:“这次措施的影响不会均匀,外国买家尤其受到较大冲击。我们认为,ABSD税率上调对大众市场的影响不会很大,因为2022年整个大众市场私人住宅购买中,外国人仅占1.5%。”

另一位分析师表示,与投资者采取观望态度不同,那些主要为自住而购买房产的买家可能仍会在大众市场活跃,尤其是首次购房者。一家全球房地产服务公司的高级研究与内容创作分析师表示:“总体而言,价格适中的私人住宅,如位于便利地点、提供理想设施的公寓,仍可能有需求,但增速可能放缓。”

然而,专家对新政策对组屋转售市场的影响看法不一。一些人预测市场可能没有变化。房地产科技公司Mogul.sg的首席研究员表示,一些人可能因为新政策放弃在私人住宅居住的计划,转而对更大或位置更佳的组屋产生更高需求。或者,部分“升级者”可能会推迟计划,这可能导致组屋转售交易量在数月内减少。

总的来说,最新的楼市调控政策对新加坡房地产市场产生了一定影响。租金价格可能会上涨,但大众市场公寓的需求和价格可能不会受到太大影响。这次政策调整可能会对外国购房者和升级者产生较大影响,但首次购房者和大众市场仍有一定需求。

New Cooling Measures: Rental Prices Likely to Increase, Mass Market Condo Demand Remains Stable

SINGAPORE — With the recent cooling measures doubling the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) for foreigners and increasing it for Singaporeans and permanent residents, property analysts predict a likely jump in rental prices.

Various factors contribute to this expectation, including foreigners choosing to rent instead of buying a home, and flat owners renting before upgrading to a private property to avoid paying the duty.

Close to midnight on Wednesday (April 26), the Government announced its highest ABSD rate increase since it was first introduced in 2011. Foreigners who buy any residential property here will have to pay 60 per cent of the property’s purchase price, up from 30 per cent. Singaporeans buying their second residential property pay 20 per cent, up from 17 per cent. The changes took effect on Thursday.

In a joint statement, the Ministry of National Development, Ministry of Finance, and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) highlighted growing demand for property among investors locally and internationally, stating that the cooling measures aim to “promote a sustainable property market.”

Property analysts expect housing rental charges to spike. However, some believe the increase might be muted, in line with MAS’ forecast of the rental market released on Wednesday in its macroeconomic review. MAS mentioned in its bi-annual report that growth in rental prices would dampen in the second half of the year due to an influx of new residential units potentially slowing rental demand.

As for potential private property buyers, analysts said that the latest cooling measures would not affect the sale of mass market condominiums. Most housing hunters would be first-property buyers not affected by the higher ABSD. One analyst from real estate agency PropNex Realty mentioned that its internal data suggests that only 1.5 per cent of transactions involved foreigners.

Ms Christine Sun, OrangeTee and Tie’s senior vice-president of research and analytics, said: “(Private property) sales volume will usually drop for about three to six months (after a cooling measure), but it will rebound after that.” These market shifts will “take effect immediately” after the ABSD increase, alongside a slowing growth in property prices, she added.

Historically, prices have never fallen after an increase — only when the Total Debt Servicing Ratio was adjusted, she observed. Last revised in September 2022, the Total Debt Servicing Ratio stipulates that all debt obligations, including housing loans, cannot exceed 55 per cent of a person’s income.

The higher ABSD is expected to push up rental prices for various reasons. For instance, 60 per cent is likely too high for some foreigners who may choose to rent while waiting to obtain citizenship or permanent residency — allowing them to avoid the ABSD or pay a smaller amount. This increased demand for rental housing will then drive up prices.

Mr Lee Sze Teck, senior director of research at real estate firm Huttons Asia, said: “Anecdotally, there are foreigners who rent, with an option to purchase the home once they become a permanent resident or citizen.” He estimates that rental charges will grow around 10 per cent this year.

Ms Sun also mentioned that owners of Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats may rent short-term while waiting in the period between selling their flat and buying a private property, to avoid paying the ABSD. “Some may find the upfront ABSD payment to be too high. Therefore, those who wish to upgrade may need to sell their flat then rent somewhere first, resulting in higher costs incurred.”

Ms Tricia Song, head of research for Southeast Asia at real estate firm CBRE, said that the overall rental market may be further affected in the long run. “As investment demand is likely to be altered by (the cooling measures), there could be fewer private homes for rent in the longer term. Demand could then spill over to commercial operators such as co-living or serviced apartments,” she added.

Analysts who spoke to TODAY are not expecting the latest changes to significantly impact the demand or prices of mass market condominiums. Mr Ismail Gafoor, chief executive officer of PropNex Realty, said: “The impact of the latest measures will not be evenly felt, with foreign buyers in particular taking a bigger hit. We think the impact of the ABSD rate hike on the mass market will not be significant as foreigners accounted for only 1.5 per cent of the private home purchases in the mass market in the whole of 2022.”

Another analyst agreed, saying that unlike investors who may adopt a wait-and-see approach, buyers who are primarily getting a property for their own occupation may still be active in the mass market, especially first-time buyers.

Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, senior analyst for research and content creation at One Global Property Services, said: “Overall, affordable private properties, such as condominium units that are priced within their budget and offer desirable amenities in accessible locations, may still be in demand, albeit at a slower pace.”

However, experts had mixed views on the impact on the HDB resale market, with some predicting that there may be no significant shifts. Mr Nicholas Mak, chief research officer at property technology company Mogul.sg, said that there may be higher demand for bigger or better-located HDB flats once people ditch their plans to own and live in private housing as a result of the new changes.

Alternatively, some of these “upgraders” may delay plans, which may lead to a lower resale volume of HDB flats “for a few months,” he added.